{
  "generated_at": "2026-05-30T00:18:40.525709+00:00",
  "model": "gpt-oss-120b",
  "variant": "variant0_neutral_baseline",
  "temperature": 0.0,
  "methodology": "Backtest on resolved Metaculus questions: each forecast was produced by gpt-oss-120b and scored against the published real-world outcome. Live user forecasts are not included until their questions resolve.",
  "n_resolved": 1580,
  "n_missing": 0,
  "accuracy": 0.8247,
  "brier_score": 0.1594,
  "ece": 0.1205,
  "calibration": [
    {
      "bin": "0-10%",
      "n": 45,
      "avg_predicted": 0.0791,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.0222
    },
    {
      "bin": "10-20%",
      "n": 213,
      "avg_predicted": 0.1685,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.0516
    },
    {
      "bin": "20-30%",
      "n": 436,
      "avg_predicted": 0.2558,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.133
    },
    {
      "bin": "30-40%",
      "n": 197,
      "avg_predicted": 0.3558,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.2284
    },
    {
      "bin": "40-50%",
      "n": 48,
      "avg_predicted": 0.436,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.2708
    },
    {
      "bin": "50-60%",
      "n": 72,
      "avg_predicted": 0.5425,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.4028
    },
    {
      "bin": "60-70%",
      "n": 158,
      "avg_predicted": 0.642,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.5506
    },
    {
      "bin": "70-80%",
      "n": 235,
      "avg_predicted": 0.749,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.6681
    },
    {
      "bin": "80-90%",
      "n": 100,
      "avg_predicted": 0.8526,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.84
    },
    {
      "bin": "90-100%",
      "n": 76,
      "avg_predicted": 0.9209,
      "observed_yes_rate": 0.9342
    }
  ],
  "log_sample_size": 300,
  "log": [
    {
      "id": 229,
      "question": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-16T23:44:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 6948,
      "question": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "natural-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-15T19:33:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41960,
      "question": "Will BAC's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-15T08:25:54Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41969,
      "question": "Will ALGN's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-15T05:26:19Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41966,
      "question": "Will AAPL's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-15T04:37:16Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 42013,
      "question": "Will TRMB's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-07?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-14T15:07:58Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41956,
      "question": "Will UHS's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-14T10:11:25Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 42011,
      "question": "Will NVDA's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-06?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-14T07:21:58Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41958,
      "question": "Will SMCI's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.84,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-14T04:43:53Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41996,
      "question": "Will RCL's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-04?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-14T04:40:04Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41991,
      "question": "Will BA's market close price on 2026-02-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-03?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-13T22:08:19Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41997,
      "question": "Will PCG's market close price on 2026-02-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-04?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-13T21:26:50Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 42008,
      "question": "Will HAL's market close price on 2026-02-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-05?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-13T07:27:02Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41983,
      "question": "Will NOW's market close price on 2026-02-12 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-03?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-12T04:49:24Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41985,
      "question": "Will VRSN's market close price on 2026-02-11 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-03?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.48,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-11T00:20:17Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41988,
      "question": "Will CSX's market close price on 2026-02-10 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-03?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-10T18:48:12Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41356,
      "question": "Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-10T13:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41370,
      "question": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-10T12:24:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40927,
      "question": "Will André Ventura win Portugal's 2026 presidential election?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-09T21:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41693,
      "question": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-09T04:36:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41892,
      "question": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.93,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-09T04:36:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 512,
      "question": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "computing-and-math",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-08T22:24:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 24814,
      "question": "Will \"stagflation\" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the \"misery index\" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-08T14:23:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17094,
      "question": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.32,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:20:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39415,
      "question": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:20:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 8393,
      "question": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before February 5, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T13:03:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41839,
      "question": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before February 5, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "nuclear",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T13:03:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36206,
      "question": "Will Bitcoin’s price drop below 50% of its highest recorded price at any point before 2040?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.74,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35357,
      "question": "Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T16:43:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39516,
      "question": "Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T16:43:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40962,
      "question": "Will the TrumpRx website be functional before February 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T16:39:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41499,
      "question": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T16:35:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41521,
      "question": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T16:35:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41555,
      "question": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41621,
      "question": "Will PANW's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:50:09Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41605,
      "question": "Will ELV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:37:22Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40919,
      "question": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41835,
      "question": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41610,
      "question": "Will EQIX's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:41:17Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41626,
      "question": "Will CMS's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T07:25:12Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41661,
      "question": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-24?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41630,
      "question": "Will BKNG's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.63,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:37:57Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41609,
      "question": "Will CEG's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:13:37Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41654,
      "question": "Will EXE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-22?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T15:53:03Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38918,
      "question": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T14:10:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39476,
      "question": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T14:10:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17100,
      "question": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T14:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39619,
      "question": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T14:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41639,
      "question": "Will OKE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T08:04:56Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41355,
      "question": "Will the retail price of rice in Japan fall below ¥4200/5kg before March 9, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.68,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T08:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41640,
      "question": "Will INVH's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:49:55Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41617,
      "question": "Will FISV's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:19:36Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41646,
      "question": "Will IR's market close price on 2026-01-29 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-29T19:44:44Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 2937,
      "question": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-29T13:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39453,
      "question": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-29T13:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 7434,
      "question": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "computing-and-math",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-29T12:57:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39488,
      "question": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.22,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-29T09:15:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41650,
      "question": "Will L's market close price on 2026-01-28 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-21?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-28T15:49:38Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17102,
      "question": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-27T17:47:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39575,
      "question": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-27T17:47:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41633,
      "question": "Will ARE's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-27T14:43:43Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41634,
      "question": "Will PEG's market close price on 2026-01-27 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-27T08:38:24Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 6508,
      "question": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-26T19:21:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41478,
      "question": "Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T23:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 8540,
      "question": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T20:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40637,
      "question": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T20:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40638,
      "question": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T20:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40639,
      "question": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T20:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40635,
      "question": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T19:21:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40636,
      "question": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-25T19:21:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 9123,
      "question": "In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-24T21:08:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 2709,
      "question": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "natural-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-23T17:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 1529,
      "question": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T19:31:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 37115,
      "question": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T19:31:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40658,
      "question": "Will Mikie Sherrill be officially certified as the winner of New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T19:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40676,
      "question": "As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App Store and Google Play?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T19:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40667,
      "question": "Will an official international supervisory board explicitly tasked with overseeing transitional governance of the Gaza Strip be constituted, with at least two publicly named individual members, between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T18:28:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40634,
      "question": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-21T18:18:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17095,
      "question": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T23:20:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39478,
      "question": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T23:20:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 34514,
      "question": "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "social-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39573,
      "question": "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40632,
      "question": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (Lisbon time)?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40633,
      "question": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcements?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39369,
      "question": "Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T17:25:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39448,
      "question": "Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.32,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T17:25:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 27208,
      "question": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T14:16:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39496,
      "question": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T14:16:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17104,
      "question": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 29501,
      "question": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.74,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39502,
      "question": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39548,
      "question": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.22,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35263,
      "question": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:10:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39388,
      "question": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:10:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35570,
      "question": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39451,
      "question": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T13:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 14502,
      "question": "Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T22:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39475,
      "question": "Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T22:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 20241,
      "question": "Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T19:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39466,
      "question": "Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T19:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36028,
      "question": "Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T18:30:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39358,
      "question": "Will India surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T18:30:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 34516,
      "question": "Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "social-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T18:24:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39461,
      "question": "Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T18:24:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39391,
      "question": "Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T18:22:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 12793,
      "question": "Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T17:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39438,
      "question": "Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T17:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 34511,
      "question": "Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "social-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39444,
      "question": "Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39535,
      "question": "Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2026)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:36:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35272,
      "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35567,
      "question": "Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39547,
      "question": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39577,
      "question": "Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.72,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:34:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 21114,
      "question": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.25,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:32:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39585,
      "question": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:32:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 4882,
      "question": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:30:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39533,
      "question": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:30:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 10176,
      "question": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:28:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39503,
      "question": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.22,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-19T16:28:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41126,
      "question": "Will Tessa Thompson or Wagner Moura win a Golden Globe in 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.93,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T16:27:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41402,
      "question": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41416,
      "question": "Will DGX's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T06:41:14Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41433,
      "question": "Will HSIC's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-08?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T04:11:54Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40217,
      "question": "Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T00:59:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40185,
      "question": "Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted of any criminal charges before January 16, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-17T00:53:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41438,
      "question": "Will BMY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41428,
      "question": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-07?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41436,
      "question": "Will CTAS's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:31:45Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41411,
      "question": "Will FAST's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:01:53Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 15602,
      "question": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T17:51:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39430,
      "question": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T17:51:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 26114,
      "question": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T17:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39377,
      "question": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T17:37:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35578,
      "question": "Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39580,
      "question": "Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:12:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35268,
      "question": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39359,
      "question": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 34512,
      "question": "Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "social-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35262,
      "question": "Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39395,
      "question": "Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39570,
      "question": "Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39889,
      "question": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.27,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40039,
      "question": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:48:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 19949,
      "question": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:47:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39389,
      "question": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:47:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38884,
      "question": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:45:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39401,
      "question": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:45:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41417,
      "question": "Will VICI's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:15:42Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41409,
      "question": "Will BSX's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T12:46:09Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41434,
      "question": "Will WY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:33:26Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41400,
      "question": "Will XYL's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-16T01:28:09Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41420,
      "question": "Will STE's market close price on 2026-01-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31106,
      "question": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T21:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39595,
      "question": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T21:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41421,
      "question": "Will ERIE's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31117,
      "question": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:08:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39520,
      "question": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:08:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31303,
      "question": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T17:29:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39484,
      "question": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T17:29:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38822,
      "question": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T12:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39346,
      "question": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T12:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41414,
      "question": "Will COF's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T11:15:15Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 13467,
      "question": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T00:16:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39611,
      "question": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-14T00:16:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35577,
      "question": "Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T23:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39399,
      "question": "Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T23:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 13913,
      "question": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T23:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39380,
      "question": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T23:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17110,
      "question": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39477,
      "question": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36013,
      "question": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:55:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39615,
      "question": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:55:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31655,
      "question": "Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:54:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39494,
      "question": "Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:54:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 37348,
      "question": "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:52:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39599,
      "question": "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:52:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 20953,
      "question": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39504,
      "question": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.17,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36022,
      "question": "Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.42,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T22:05:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35261,
      "question": "Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39566,
      "question": "Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 29956,
      "question": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39574,
      "question": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:49:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 30344,
      "question": "Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39407,
      "question": "Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 4919,
      "question": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.68,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:39:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39406,
      "question": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:39:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35481,
      "question": "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39405,
      "question": "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T12:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 41396,
      "question": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "finance",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39721,
      "question": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T22:22:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39722,
      "question": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T22:22:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31134,
      "question": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T22:21:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39616,
      "question": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T22:21:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 20172,
      "question": "Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.68,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T21:01:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39485,
      "question": "Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T21:01:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35573,
      "question": "Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T20:57:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39427,
      "question": "Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T20:57:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38671,
      "question": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T20:56:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39433,
      "question": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T20:56:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40788,
      "question": "Will Russia gain control of Kostiantynivka before January 11, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T14:10:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40751,
      "question": "Will the US unemployment rate for December 2025 be higher than November 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T14:01:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40946,
      "question": "Will China request a WTO panel in its EV and battery-related trade dispute with India before January 11, 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T13:53:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38985,
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "space",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:01:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39441,
      "question": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:01:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 7082,
      "question": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 22560,
      "question": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36025,
      "question": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "nuclear",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36201,
      "question": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36250,
      "question": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38712,
      "question": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39462,
      "question": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39490,
      "question": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39541,
      "question": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39553,
      "question": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39576,
      "question": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39596,
      "question": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T12:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35569,
      "question": "Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:27:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39449,
      "question": "Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:27:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 4892,
      "question": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.76,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 12539,
      "question": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31316,
      "question": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "space",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35562,
      "question": "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35563,
      "question": "Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35571,
      "question": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35572,
      "question": "Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35575,
      "question": "Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39382,
      "question": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39450,
      "question": "Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39511,
      "question": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39536,
      "question": "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39554,
      "question": "Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39569,
      "question": "Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39620,
      "question": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "space",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39622,
      "question": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:07:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 7099,
      "question": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 7101,
      "question": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.42,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35564,
      "question": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "sports-entertainment",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39398,
      "question": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39560,
      "question": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39586,
      "question": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T11:06:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35576,
      "question": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T10:54:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39379,
      "question": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T10:54:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35574,
      "question": "Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T10:53:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39543,
      "question": "Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.73,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-12T10:53:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40301,
      "question": "Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-10T16:43:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 38916,
      "question": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:51:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39521,
      "question": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:51:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 35512,
      "question": "Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36488,
      "question": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39348,
      "question": "Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39381,
      "question": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-08T15:50:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31099,
      "question": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T23:59:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39608,
      "question": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T23:59:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 17373,
      "question": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T22:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39556,
      "question": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T22:38:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 5655,
      "question": "Will Trump flee the United States?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:59:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 29076,
      "question": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 36487,
      "question": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "environment-climate",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39352,
      "question": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39363,
      "question": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39489,
      "question": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39572,
      "question": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T21:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 40249,
      "question": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T14:25:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 30960,
      "question": "Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:56:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39361,
      "question": "Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:56:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 29086,
      "question": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39545,
      "question": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "health-pandemics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 29290,
      "question": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39423,
      "question": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T12:14:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31324,
      "question": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T01:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39618,
      "question": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.72,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-07T01:42:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 34519,
      "question": "Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "social-sciences",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T22:57:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39550,
      "question": "Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T22:57:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31258,
      "question": "Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31296,
      "question": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31336,
      "question": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31357,
      "question": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39354,
      "question": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39422,
      "question": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39601,
      "question": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T21:26:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31118,
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31123,
      "question": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.27,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31255,
      "question": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.27,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "cryptocurrencies",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31273,
      "question": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31307,
      "question": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31341,
      "question": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.66,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39392,
      "question": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39435,
      "question": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39518,
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39584,
      "question": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "technology",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39587,
      "question": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39591,
      "question": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "elections",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T20:04:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31252,
      "question": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "economy-business",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T19:46:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39544,
      "question": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.68,
      "actual": "Yes",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "artificial-intelligence",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T19:46:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 31620,
      "question": "Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T17:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39539,
      "question": "Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "geopolitics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T17:58:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 37687,
      "question": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?",
      "predicted": "No",
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": true,
      "category": "politics",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T17:43:00Z"
    },
    {
      "id": 39356,
      "question": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?",
      "predicted": "Yes",
      "confidence": 0.71,
      "actual": "No",
      "correct": false,
      "category": "law",
      "resolve_time": "2026-01-06T17:43:00Z"
    }
  ]
}